Description
This is a course project at the University of Tübingen.
Abstract: Weather-dependent energy output forecasting systems have suffered due to the
inherent noise in weather elements. Diffusion models can improve such forecasting by learning
these noise patterns. In this work, we show that diffusion models can be used on top of any
regression-based model for better forecasting. The quality of forecasting is improved by the
denoising diffusion-based conditional generative model over a pre-trained conditional mean
estimator. The conditioning prior model and the diffusion model are trained and tested using the
RMSE metric on a dataset containing 4 years of hourly weather data with corresponding solar and
wind energy supply values. It is observed that the diffusion mechanism consistently outperforms
the initial conditioning prior by 4-5% on average.
GitHub:
github.com/Swadesh13/Renewable-CARD
Status: Completed Project.
Mentor:
Nicole Ludwig
Datasets: German weather dataset for 4 years (2019-2022) with hourly intervals +
photovoltaic and the wind power output (cumulated over Germany) dataset with 15-minute intervals
Language/Frameworks: Python, PyTorch